Overseas Betting Markets Foretell Trouble for Virginia Dems

BUCK: One thing is this Virginia race that we’ve been talking about, this Virginia discussion that is underway right now between Glenn Youngkin and Terry McAuliffe, Clay has some betting odds on that one. But we also have a little flashback to share with all of you. You recall the moment, I think, that was the roughest for McAuliffe in the debate he had with Youngkin recently was when he kind of just said (impression), “Well, don’t think the parents should be telling teacher — you know, telling schools what to teach.” Like I was pretty sure that school board meetings exist so that parents can actually raise their concerns about this issue.

But McAuliffe has been a tool of the left in education. He’s a connected and mainstream, so to speak, DNC hack and he’s been saying the things he needs to say to make the Democrat left and the teachers unions happy for a long time, including back in 2019. He basically said that, you know, for elementary schools the promotion of diversity and inclusion is as important as math and English. Play 2.

MCAULIFFE: We’ve gotta do a better job in our education system. We’ve gotta go back K to 6. Early on we’ve gotta start teaching, talking about these issues much earlier than we’ve done it before. We don’t do a good job in our education system talking about diversity, inclusion, openness, and so forth. We don’t. We got our textbooks. But, you know, there has to be a big part of how do you fit into the social work of our nation and our fabric? How is it that we deal with one another to me is as important as, you know, your math class and your English class and so forth. And we don’t.

BUCK: Now, I don’t think CRT or diversity inclusion is as important as math and English for elementary school kids, Clay. I disagree with McAuliffe, and I think the voters of Virginia do too.

CLAY: I think a vast majority of voters in Virginia disagree with him on that. I had Dub in our studio who also likes to gamble, again look up the numbers offshore. And I think they are kind of fascinating. You can gamble overseas on American elections. You can’t do this, really, legally in the United States in the same way, at least not yet. The over-under right now, right now Terry McAuliffe is still favored. He’s minus 275 in the betting markets. Glenn Youngkin is plus 220. All right. This is one week out.

But the over-under on the electoral margin outcome is 1.5%. So what the betting markets are telling us is that Biden, they think, has lost at least 8.5% — I shouldn’t say Biden — Democrats have lost at least 8.5% of the 10-point margin that they had in this election. And the money is coming in on Glenn Youngkin to pull off the upset. This is massively significant nationwide, Buck, because if we were talking about a margin like this translating to other states, you’re talking about a ton of the states. Some of which Biden even won comfortably, flipping over into the Republican camp as soon as the midterm elections in 2022.

Even if Youngkin doesn’t win this election, Democrats are running scared. It’s why they’re bringing out all the heavy hitters. It’s why they’re trying to say, oh, my goodness, this Glenn Youngkin is just Donald Trump 2.0. This is a major flash point. Everybody in Virginia and everybody in the nation should be paying attention one week from today what happens in this election. It is the culture signpost that could spin in a major direction.

BREAK TRANSCRIPT

BUCK: It’s gonna be a tight one in Virginia. Just days away as we’ve been telling you, the governor’s race between Glenn Youngkin and Terry McAuliffe. And if we could play clip 3 here, here’s Ronna McDaniel saying just that.

MCDANIEL: The fact that we’re competitive and that we are gonna pick up seats, I think, in the House of Delegates says a lot about Virginia. And where we’re seeing those gains is in suburban Virginia, Richmond and Nova area, and that’s huge for our party. We need to start bringing those suburban voters back into our party.

BUCK: Absolutely. Critical, especially going into the midterm elections, going forward. You know, a lot of gerrymandering underway right now, a lot of machinations of a political variety behind the scenes because of all the power that’s at stake. But I just want to remind everybody ’cause Terry McAuliffe is trying to pretend that he’s running against Donald Trump.

McAuliffe’s problem in Virginia — and it’s Democrats’ problem whenever their ideas are actually clear to the people around them — is what he thinks, is what he believes. Here he is back in 2019 saying that, you know, diversity and inclusion, you know, it’s just like math and science, just as important as the most basic stuff you learned in elementary school.

BUCK: Nope. Diversity, inclusion training for elementary school kids, not as important as learning to read, Clay.

CLAY: Yeah. I’m gonna disagree with McAuliffe there. And I also think that the vast majority of Virginians do disagree with him as well, and that’s why the over-under margin on this race, remember, Biden won Virginia by 10 points. It was not a particularly close state. It’s down to one and a half points, according to the oddsmakers.

And the numbers are basically dead even in the most recent polls that we are seeing. So Virginia has an opportunity, all of you listening to us right now in the great state of Virginia, you have an opportunity to send a message about the direction that our nation needs to go. This would be a monumental upset for Glenn Youngkin. You guys need to make this happen. It has a tremendous impact if it does.