Beware of the Narratives and Don’t Underestimate Putin

BUCK: Clay, I’ve gotta say, you’re seeing all this analysis of Putin might be crazy; Putin is erratic. Again, I don’t tell you that I have all the answers here, and I think there are a lot of people running around acting like they do have the answers on this because I’ve just seen how people — very smart, very attuned people — get major foreign policy-related issues quite wrong.

I think the foreign policy establishment in America has been pretty consistently wrong when there’s consensus over the last 20… Well, some would say “the last forever,” but certainly over the last 20 years, mostly in the Middle East and South Asia but in other places as well. I would be cautious about saying Putin’s crazy. I think that’s something that people might want to hear right now, or maybe they don’t because they’re worried that that means he’ll use nukes.

But they think that there’s no strategy behind this. He thought about this for a long time. I wouldn’t comfort anybody by telling them Russia’s plans have already fallen on the rocks, so to speak, have come apart on the shoals and maybe now it will be a matter of days before he’s retreating. He knows a lot about this region and has a pretty good understanding of what he’s trying to accomplish. So I just think… People that say they’re in Putin’s head, Clay. I think they’re going too far. I would caution against thinking that they know the mind of this man.

CLAY: One of the guys that’s been the best, I think, at sharing information — Marco Rubio, senator from Florida — tweeted out in the last 30 minutes or so that based on what he is seeing and hearing, that now there is going to be an old school-style medieval siege of Kiev —

BUCK: Yes.

CLAY: — trying to cut it off, that the attempt to just march the army right in and have all of the defenders lay down their weapons and effectively decapitate the government has not worked. But now you enter into a long-running siege. And I think that’s an important, interesting discussion here, Buck, because then it gets into — and Marco Rubio’s asking this question, too — how committed are all of these alliance countries that are supporting the resistance in Ukraine to helping to get materiel into Kiev to allow the fight to continue?

Not just, by the way, weapons, but also fuel, food, everything that would allow a modern metropolis like Kiev is to continue. And to your point on Vladimir Putin’s mental state, what I understand most intriguing now is, as things start to spin — I think it’s fair to say — a little bit out of control, every day into the future gets harder and harder to predict. Is it possible…?

When you look at the ruble dropping 20%, with the Russian stock market being closed, interest rates doubling, effectively, overnight, and some of those oligarchs out there, the billionaires that have helped to support Vladimir Putin, is it possible that that economic pressure that’s brought to bear starts to put Putin himself under pressure in his native country in a way he has not been in a long time?

When you got everybody standing in line, Buck, trying to get cash out of the ATM because they’re worried about whether the banks are going to have runs on them, that is something where some of that quiet resistance that Putin has dealt with in the past could suddenly become more pronounced and more prominent. I think it’s an intriguing thing to contemplate.

BUCK: I do. I’ve seen some analysis of this, and I would tend to agree with Putin could not survive this as an abject disaster where he’s humiliated — mean his regime, his power. I don’t know if he could survive that back home, although if anyone could it’s Vladimir Putin who is a true author torn, a true dictator. But it certainly would rock his rule to its foundation.

On the other hand, when we look at what’s being done, I try to caution everybody because I can see this narrative of a glorious Ukrainian resistance kicking Russian soldiers’ butts all over the country and Putin’s gonna go back with his tail between his legs, I think — I don’t know — that underestimates the planning, the will, and the goals of Vladimir Putin in this situation.

I just don’t want to underestimate the opponent in this context, and I think people that are getting caught up in the, yeah, there’s the ghost of Kiev which apparently doesn’t even… It’s not even real, the fighter plane that’s shooting down all these other planes, the Snake Island situation which turns out they actually surrendered it. There’s all the — you know, the grannies taking up arms. Okay, fine. You know, when it’s true, that’s one thing.

Some of this stuff isn’t even true. Do not underestimate. Look at what has happened over the last 10 years. Somehow this guy oversteps and gets what he wants time and time again. Maybe this is the turning point. Maybe this is where he gets slapped down. But the fact that we’re not even willing to go after the Russian energy sector —

CLAY: That’s the big issue.

BUCK: Here is a Ukrainian member of Parliament, Alexey Goncharenko, who is calling for the embargo of Russian oil, saying, “Look, if you guys want to really hit Russia, you gotta cut off their oil exports.”

GONCHARENKO: We need embargo on Russian oil and gas because now Russian oil and gas is full of Ukrainian blood! More than 350 civilians are killed, 16 children are killed, and their blood — the innocent blood — is inside Russian gas and oil. So embargo — ban — Russian gas and oil. That is something from moral point of view but certainly from a practical point of view too. Russia is just a big gas station of the world. Two-thirds of their exports are oil and gas. One half of revenues of Russian state budget is gas and oil! So let’s stop it, and you will see that Putin will surrender just in the days. And that will enormously help not only us but the whole world.

BUCK: Half the budget of the Russian government comes from it. Think about this. Now, China will still buy it. We know that so they do have an outlet, another people. There are gonna be black market sales of oil. But, Clay, eventually the very uncomfortable conversation that’s gonna have to happen in this country if the government is really devoted to standing for the principle of democracy in Ukraine is, “Okay. We really want this thing to end?

“Do the American people want to see their gas prices go up 100% and all products along with it or 10% or 30% or whatever the number may be, a dramatic increase in prices and cost of living for all Americans to stand with Ukraine? Are people willing to do that? Do people want to do that? Is that in the interests of the American people?” This is something you’re going to have to think about, I think, going forward.

CLAY: And I think we need to continue to hammer Democrats who allowed our own production of oil and gas to be dialed back down. We could in theory, if we really got rolling, make up for much of the oil and gas that Russia would otherwise be providing to Europe, around the world. We need to get Saudi Arabia, who we have decent relationships with, to agree to pump more oil and gas.

But, yes, he’s right. You can’t win an economic embargo when you allow the most valuable asset of the country that you are economically embargoing to continue to be sold — and, by the way, Buck, to continue to be sold at a higher and higher price, because the price of gas is going up due to the crisis that’s existing right now.

BUCK: This would be like someone like, “I’m gonna boycott OutKick.com. I’m only reading their sports coverage,” like, well, that’s really not gonna do it.

CLAY: It is a unbelievable failure. Could be far more successful.