C&B Provide Unemotional, Fact-Based Ukraine Analysis

BUCK: The situation in Ukraine, you still have the fight underway for Ukrainian cities. Notably, Mariupol on the Sea of Azov in the southeast of Ukraine; Kiev, the capital in the center of the country, increasing encircled by Russian forces. And you’ll note that there’s still a lot of debate, a lot of discussion going on in this country about what the full extent of our involvement should be.

Although it has moved away from two weeks ago, it’s seemed that no-fly zone was gaining some momentum. And the conversation, people were saying we need to give F-18s, even some Republicans recently were out, some Republican governors said we should give F-18s to the Ukraine so they can prosecute a more effective air war against the Russian invader. A number of governors have been over to Poland.

Joe Biden is over in Europe right now, I believe, and he is going to be announcing new sanctions against Russia shortly, so increasing the economic pain on Russia. And in the meantime, you have discussions about what are the Russians going to do. On the one hand, Clay, there’s still a back and forth over whether the Russian offensive is stalled or if it is just proceeding as a bloody, massive military campaign would, which is slowly methodically and brutally.

Or is this a possibility, is this a moment where there could be a turning of the tide against the Russians? Here’s the former four-star general and former CIA director David Petraeus last night on CNN saying that there’s always this threat that we have to be aware of Russia using a nuclear weapon because of the stalemate.

REPORTER: Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, acknowledged today that Vladimir Putin hasn’t achieved his aims in Ukraine and also refused to rule out the use of nuke weapons, if Russia faces an existential threat. What is your assessment of those two very significant comments from someone so close to the Russian leader?

PETRAEUS: It’s an extraordinary admission from someone so close to President Putin, and it’s quite an extraordinary effort to rattle the nuclear saber. Once again, having heard Vladimir Putin do that himself a couple of weeks ago, it’s quite worrisome.

BUCK: “Quite worrisome” the former four-star general here, former General Petraeus says about this. Clay, I think right now what we’re seeing is reality setting in more among the political class of this country, that short of a massive escalation of U.S. forces in some capacity here — or massive escalation, I should say, of our involvement in some capacity, which would be something like a no-fly zone — this is a war that’s going to be determined by Ukrainians and Russians.

And you can’t on the one hand say, “Well, maybe a no-fly zone wouldn’t be that big a deal,” and on the side you have people… General Petraeus is a smart guy — he’s obviously had his challenges in the past, but he’s a very smart individual — saying there’s a threat of nuclear weapons in the background. I think American people by and large just don’t want us to be in another war. And even the Biden Administration seems aware of that.

CLAY: It feels to me, Buck, as if Ukraine and Russia is moving outside of the primary sphere of influence in the United States. And we talked about this early on. How long would Americans care about what could turn into a real slog of a battle? And I think that’s where we are now, right? Initially it was, “Oh, are we going to see a lightning strike taking over of Kiev? Are we going to see a massive, quick succession of cities fall to the Russians? Are we going to see Volodymyr Zelensky killed?”

There were a lot of different captivating storylines in the initial days of the Russian invasion. It feels like it’s all bogged down now. And that before long the way this story is going to play out is, it’s going to be a negotiated settlement that we see play out in the media, where both Ukraine and Russia are looking for the best possible deal that they can get because what Putin may well have hoped for, which was a rapid victory that was going to be welcomed by Ukraine, has clearly not occurred.

And what Zelensky might have hoped for, which was putting forth so many casualties on to the Russians that they eventually decide to basically stop their advance doesn’t seem to have occurred either. And so there only seems to be one result left, and it’s what are the terms of ending this war going to look like.

BUCK: And there’s still talk about dramatic escalation that could happen on the Russian side, which we should all be aware of. You’re hearing more right now about nuclear — which we just mentioned in the context of that threat in the background, and Gen. Petraeus’ comments — chemical and biological weapons have been talked about, and cyber is getting a lot of discussion. And that they’re bringing up as we could all be facing some form of cyberattack here in America.

So I think that’s one area we all want to be very cognizant of exactly what is being said, and how all of a sudden that could be used as a means of making it seem like this war has been brought home to us. Here’s Biden, I think this was just yesterday, saying that we could at any moment now, Clay — we, meaning America — could get hit with a massive cyberattack from Russia.

BIDEN: Today, my administration issued new warnings that based on evolving intelligence Russia may be planning a cyberattack against us. As I said, the magnitude of Russia’s cyber capacity is fairly consequential. And it’s coming. The federal government is doing its part to get ready. But under U.S. law, as you all remember, the private sector, all of you, largely decides the protections that we will or will not take.

BUCK: Big private sector attack cyberattack is coming, Biden, the president says. Mostly on the private sector, so good luck dealing with that. By the way, I want to dive into this in a second with you, Clay, he also, when he was boarding Marine One, just threw into the mix talking to reporters, “Yeah, maybe Russia will use chemical weapons.”

VOICE: They’re talking about the threat of chemical warfare, the use of chemical weapons. How high is that threat?

BIDEN: I think it’s a real threat.

BUCK: A real threat that they may use chemical weapons, get ready for a massive cyberattacks, they’re rallying around nukes. Notice, Clay, just in the span of two weeks it’s gone from, “Everyone put on your Ukraine flag pin, why aren’t we doing a no-fly zone, where are the F-18s that we’re going to give to the Ukrainians,” to, “Oh my gosh, they might actually cyberattack us on homeland and use chemical weapons in Ukraine.” It’s been quite a shift in tone from the regime.

CLAY: And Russia reopened their stock market in limited fashion today. I haven’t paid attention to what’s exactly happened there. But it appears that Russia has weathered the sanctions storm that the international community brought to bear on them and now is attempting to show strength. Because however this situation ends up resolving, you know that Putin has to be able to claim — and certainly he’s going to claim to his people — that it was a tremendous victory for Russia.

And so how exactly is he going to undertake that? I still think, Buck, the only way this story really changes in the way that we’re discussing it right now is if Zelensky gets killed by Russia, because that is what is going to provoke a truly emotional response, because he has become the head of the resistance. He is the personification of Ukrainian fighting spirit, and so f he gets taken out, I think the pressure for America to act more aggressively grows.

BUCK: Okay, wargame this out with me and everyone we’re talking to across the country, what do you think happens if Zelensky does get hit by a missile strike by the Russians, something along those lines? What does the international community do?

CLAY: I think there’s an immediate call for something, some kind of military response.

BUCK: You think we maybe go in if they kill Zelensky?

CLAY: I’m not saying that we’re going to do it, but I think some politicians are going to take that step because Zelensky’s death will be responded to emotionally, primarily on social media. You saw everybody with the Ukrainian flag. If Zelensky were to die, he would become a martyr for democracy. He would become the great hero.

All the blue checks that follow whatever the emotional tides are would change their profile pictures to Volodymyr Zelensky. They would demand that America stand up in some way and that his death would not be in vain. And I think it would accelerate demands for NATO and international support of Ukraine in a massive way.

BUCK: I think we’ve approached this, now that the war is… We’re in basically a month into this conflict.

CLAY: Yeah.

BUCK: I think we’ve approached this the right way which is to say don’t get caught up in the immediate narrative that is being fed to you from any quarter. Look as many sources, this is what we do every day, but look at as many different sources of information as possible to get the fullest picture.

Don’t be driven by emotion. Don’t accept simplistic narratives, because that’s what often happens in conflicts like this. People say, “Oh, there’s a good side, a bad side so we should do X.” It’s not as easy as you know who is good and who is bad and therefore you do the following. And then beyond that I would say, Clay, just the recognition this is going to be longer, harder, messier — and, honestly, more awful — than I think a lot of people were anticipating in the early days of this.

Here is National Security Advisor for Biden, Jake Sullivan — and notice, none of these people you hear speaking, Biden included, instill any confidence whatsoever when you’re just listening to them talk about this. It sounds like you’re listening to the HR department at Mutual of Omaha tell you where you’re going to get your dental benefits this year.

CLAY: (laughing) Yeah.

BUCK: They really do not. None of the people they have speaking about this. Jen Psaki, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Jake Sullivan. You’re like, “Really? This is who I’m dealing with?” But here he is admitting this war is not going to end easily or quickly.

SULLIVAN: There will be hard days ahead in Ukraine, hardest for the Ukrainian troops on the front line and the civilians under Russian bombardment. (pause) This war will not end easily or rapidly. For the past few months, the West has been united. The president is traveling to Europe to ensure we stay united, to cement our collective resolve, to send a powerful message.

BUCK: “To send a powerful message,” Clay. We’re sending messages, sure. We’re taking economic action. We’re giving weapons. But I think the reality has set in, and this is what we’ve been saying here on this show: The Russian war machine is grinding on; it is not stopping anytime soon, unless there’s a negotiated settlement with Ukraine.

And this whole thing is going to be a lot messier, nastier and last longer than I think the Biden regime anticipated. And a lot of the commentariat was saying in the early days, “Look at the Ukrainians fighting magnificently!” Yeah, brave, great, fantastic. We’re rooting for them. Not enough to stop the Russian war machine, unfortunately.

CLAY: When you hear Jake Sullivan talk, Buck, do you immediately think back to, “Why should I trust this guy? He told me that the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation?”

BUCK: I feel like he’s the guy that I have to stop from getting a wedgy in high school.

CLAY: (laughing)

BUCK: I have to push the bullies away and e like, “Stop it. Stop it.” You know?

CLAY: When you allow yourself to be overrun by partisan agenda-based political crap, which is what so many of these big-time, supposedly trustworthy international affairs, spies, everybody said, I can’t trust any of these guys ever again. Right? I mean, that is the essence of this. Like, when I hear him talk, I just think, “Why do I believe you now when you lied to me about the Hunter Biden story?”

BUCK: Absolutely true — and yes, your point is well taken. I think he also just comes across like a really… This is not the guy you want on your team in a debate or in a bar fight, like either one. There’s nothing imposing about him.

CLAY: That’s not a good combo.

BUCK: You don’t want him on either front, and everybody who was a part of the Hunter Biden — and honestly, I would say the Russia collusion lie as well — these are people whom you trust their national security analysis and assessment at your peril, because they’ve shown they’re unwilling to be true professionals looking at the interests of the American people in American security and they will subordinate that.

Everybody who put their name on that “Russian disinformation” memo about the Hunter Biden laptop, everybody who was a talking head saying that Trump is in Putin’s pocket and we’re going to find out any day now; the whole thing will come down with the Kremlin running the government. They should never be trusted again, and anyone who listens to them does so…

I gotta say, I would expect, if I had gotten something so wrong that my credibility among any audience would be damaged. But you see for the left, Clay, the credibility never mattered. It was propaganda, and everyone was in on it. So they knew what the game was, and the game was, “Tell the lie that’s most necessary and most effective in that moment and do the cleanup later.”

CLAY: That steak’s going to taste so good, Buck.

BUCK: Oh, now we’re on Hunter Biden’s prosecuting?

CLAY: I’m just talking about it, sitting here thinking about how good my steak is going to be.

BUCK: When they tell me about the specific additions —

CLAY: (laughing)

BUCK: I can get it Oscar-style, where they put the crabmeat on top. It’s an extra $30. We’re going to be ringing that register, Travis. I’m not going to hold back at all. I might get extra side of bearnaise sauce just because.