BUCK: Ned Ryun joins us now. He’s the founder and CEO of American Majority and Voter Gravity. He is a Virginia native. He’s in Loudoun County. He knows this issue backwards and forwards. Ned, thanks for being with us.
RYUN: Yeah, no, absolutely, good to be with you guys. And, Buck, you’re right, tomorrow is pretty telling as to where we go moving forward. Not only in Virginia, but I think even on a national level. I think if Youngkin wins — and I’m pretty optimistic that he will, as well as others that are on the statewide ballot, even on the House of Delegates — I think it has an impact on what’s going on in D.C. in regards to the some of the crazy Democrat ideas on spending.
And I think it puts a real pause on that and I think you might even see some retirements among Democrat House incumbents who might want to check out and not have to face the voters in 2022. So no, Virginia’s elections are not only gonna have an impact on the state, but I think the national debate as well.
BUCK: Ned, what are the numbers showing us right now for how much the education issue is at the forefront here and why Youngkin is so far ahead?
RYUN: No, I mean, this is the one thing, Buck: 60-some percent of the voters said their number one issue in this election is education, and it’s not to give the teachers more money or to put more funding into our school system. It’s to say, “Stop using our schools as indoctrination centers. Stop doing CRT. Stop pushing transgenderism. Start teaching advanced courses.”
This is the interesting thing, Buck, and I know I’ve said this to you before, but I’ll say it again. There are a lot of people that are upset about CRT here in Virginia. But where you get 70% of Democrats and independents is on the issue of they want the schools to start teaching advanced math courses and other advanced courses again, and Glenn Youngkin has been very clear on this front.
When he is elected governor, that will be one of the things he does on day one is to reinstate advanced math courses and other things because a lot of parents, regardless of party affiliation, are saying, “You’re ruining my child’s future by not giving them advanced courses.” So there’s a lot of different things at stake here, but Glenn Youngkin, this kind of fell into his lap a little bit, Buck.
He has embraced it. He has run with it. But I think even more importantly, he’s kind of laid out a playbook — if Republicans are smart — for the midterms in 2022 to say, “Hey, let’s side with the parents.” Kind of a common sense no-brainer. “Let’s side with the parents and say, ‘Hey, we’re going to be your advocates in the face of the left and the teachers unions,’ and say parents have a right to decide what their kids are being taught inside the school system.”
RYUN: I will say at least through midterms, but I will say probably through the next presidential at a minimum. I mean, it’s a fundemental issue. Like parents are saying here in Loudoun — and I know there’s bigger school districts but we put a billion-and-a-half dollars annually into our school system and parents are just standing up and saying:
“Hey, it’s deeply insulting and insulting for you to say, ‘We’re gonna teach your children things you don’t agree with using your billion-and-a-half dollars, and you can just basically sit down and shut up.” I mean, it’s a fundamental issue. What right do parents have in educating their children? They have every right! We’re not co-raising our children with the government. We’ve basically said, “We’ve made stewards of not only the money, but the children; now teach them things that we need to be successful in life.”
So not only the midterms but I do think, Clay, it will be an issue in 2024 the amazing thing though going back to Virginia and these reelections people have been focused on Youngkin. I think if Youngkin — and again Trafalgar came out with him up 2.3 today, and that’s probably about right. Two to three points is where I see Youngkin — hopefully, fingers crossed — winning tomorrow.
But then you get to Winsome Sears, who’s lieutenant governor, I think that will pull Miyares across AG. But even more importantly, ’cause we’ve been focused with American Majority Action on delegate races, I would not be surprised if we are able to flip the House of Delegates, which is huge. We need to flip six seats, and maybe get even more than six. But we’ll see.
CLAY: Ned, it is fascinating because you don’t have very many of these elections happening in this year. Virginia, Joe Biden won by 10 points. What you’re talking about is a potential 12- to 13-point swing in electoral support. How much could that translate forward in ’22 or ’24 or is Youngkin just the right candidate at the right time? In other words, is he the cause or is he just following the trend lines — and in theory, there could be a lot more Virginias out there where suddenly electoral math changes some? ‘Cause the 13-point swing in one year would be pretty seismic.
RYUN: He’s following the trend lines, Clay. This is something that fell into his lap in which there’s a movement already percolating, starting to explode onto the surface, once he won the nomination he embraced it. But this isn’t something that originated with Glenn Youngkin here in Virginia. This is a truly grass — and you’ve seen this in Tennessee.
This is truly a grassroots movement that has exploded from the grassroots, from concerned parents, and it’s percolating and it’s rising from the ground up. So the thing that people would be smart to do is what Glenn Youngkin has done: Embrace the issue and say, “I’m actually going to be advocating for parents’ rights,” and so the thing that I hope and I think is such a no-brainer and common sense.
It’s hard for me to accept the fact that they might not do it but Republicans, you can always bank on them kind of being stupid. But hopefully they embrace this in 2022 and say, “We’re gonna ride this.” The thing I’ll remind listeners of is this: The first midterm for the party that’s in the White House is usually pretty devastating. The party that’s out of power in the White House typically wins 28 seats in the House and four in the Senate since World War II on average.
I think we’re looking at even more significant numbers if Republicans will embrace this trend, embrace it and push hard on it. You could see a lot more, and then you add in redistricting anywhere from 6 to 13 more seats in the House for the Republicans 2022 could be pretty significant setting the tone for 2024.
BUCK: We’re speaking to Ned Ryun, founder and CEO of American Majority and author of The Adversary, by the way. Great book. Go pick up your copy. Ned, this is a race that — as Clay and I have been focusing in on it for weeks now — is clearly gonna have implications, of course, for the midterms, the political year we’re entering here but just for the rest of the country when it comes to CRT. It does seem like at some level there is a degree of desperation from the McAuliffe camp —
RYUN: Oh, absolutely.
CLAY: — and they are focusing in on somebody who is definitely not actually in the governor’s race. Let’s hear just a montage put out by the Youngkin campaign for a second.
McAULIFFEE MONTAGE: Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Trump, Donald Trump, Trump, Trump, Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Trump, Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Trump, Trump Trump, Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Trump, Donald Trump, Trump Troll Donald Trump, Trump, Donald Trump, Trump Trump, Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Trump Donald Trump Trump. Trump, Donald Trump. He Keeps Invoking Trump, Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Trump, Trump, Donald Trump. Donald Trump. Trump, Donald Trump. Trump, Trump, Donald Trump. Trump Trump. Trump, Trump, Donald Trump, Trump, Donald Trump. Have you made this race too much about Trump? No Trump, Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Trump, Donald Trump, Trump, Trump, Donald Trump. Donald Trump. Trump, Donald Trump. Trump Trump. Donald Trump. Donald Trump Trump Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Trump Trump, Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Trump, Trump.
BUCK: That goes on for a full minute. It’s just all the times in recent weeks McAuliffe has brought up the former president. It seems so desperate. Ned, you watch the numbers. You know the Virginia political landscape as well as literally anyone I know. Is that actually gaining ’em any traction?
RYUN: No.
BUCK: Is this the kind of a pathetic they got nothing left so they’re throwing the Trump card out there, as if that’s going to cost Youngkin the election? What do you see here?
RYUN: But even then, Buck, first of all, they have nothing. But even more so even doubling down on Trump I would remind people a Rasmussen poll in September nationally but also was reflected in Virginia, independents by 20 points move towards Trump and said, “If we were to have the 2020 elections again, by 20 points independents would vote for Trump over Biden.”
So them going after Trump here in Virginia, it might even help Youngkin with independents, because they’ve moved so strongly in the Trump direction from even last fall, and that’s the amazing thing to me. As Clay mentioned, Biden won this state by 10 points. But you look under the surface, independents have moved dramatically towards Republicans, and the mid-propensity voters have gained.
We’ve gone from eight to 18 favoring Republicans; low propensity have moved 19 points in Republicans’ favor just since last November here in Virginia. So for the McAuliffe campaign to be going, “Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump,” it actually is probably helping Youngkin because Trump is actually pretty popular with a lot of the independent voters.
BUCK: We also have Terry McAuliffe out there talking about what he says is the “racist dog whistle,” that’s his term, of parents who want to have greater input into what their children are being taught, including places like Loudoun, which is your county and where this rebellion against CRT really got going.
RYUN: Right.
BUCK: Is it fair to say, Ned, if there is a big — and I don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, ’cause who knows. But if there’s a big win tomorrow from Youngkin, is it in no small part due to parents who in Virginia and other places across the country, got this parental revolution, if you will, going against the leftist apparatus of indoctrination?
RYUN: Yeah. Absolutely. And the irony in all of this, Buck, is because of the absurd covid lockdowns, parents were actually kind of awakened to the fact of what was going on in the schools by watching what their kids were learning online and seeing the videos and going, “Wait a minute. We didn’t sign up for this.” So, if there was a silver lining to the covid lockdowns it was that it woke parents up to going, “Hey, this is terrible.
“I didn’t sign up for this. I don’t want to see them indoctrinated with this.” The amazing part and I will repeat this again, when the DOJ and the FBI are saying that they are targeting school board meetings, they’re not simply targeting Republicans. There are Democrats. There are independents. There are whites. There are blacks. There are men. There are women.
Everybody is there, and almost to the same 70% of them — especially on the advanced courses — are saying, “We don’t want this. You have to listen to us,” and the arrogant Loudoun County School Board is basically telling us to shut up. And again, it’s being replayed in many, many different school boards across the country. This is not a Republican issue. I want to stress this.
CLAY: You mentioned this at the beginning of the interview, and I just want to circle back to it again. Let’s say that Youngkin wins. What does this do to the Biden agenda, and how do Democrats try to respond — and by the Biden agenda, of course, I mean the infrastructure and the $1.5 trillion or $1.75 trillion that’s pending out there. Does that lose momentum, and how do Democrats respond to what would be a devastating defeat?
RYUN: No, I think, Clay, this is why they were pushing so hard. I mean, they were pushing so hard in the last week or two because they realize the closer they got to the Virginia elections, “This is gonna be a bellwether. Are the voters going to punish us?” That’s why they are pushing so hard. Nothing’s gonna happen obviously on a vote between now and tomorrow.
We’ll see about infrastructure. Again, like I mentioned earlier, I think you’re going to see incumbent Democrats say, “You know what? I think I’m gonna announce my retirement and I’m not running for reelection in 2022 ’cause it’s already gonna be a brutal year,” and I think it’s gonna get even more brutal after we see tomorrow night’s results.
BUCK: Ned Ryun, everybody, author of The Adversaries, founder of American Majority, and our man in Virginia. Ned, always appreciate it, man. We’ll hopefully be talking to you about some celebratory moods for Youngkin. Fingers crossed. Everyone get out there and vote. Ned, thanks so much.
RYUN: Thanks, guys.
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