Rubio Losing? Senate Races Looking Tougher and Tougher for GOP

CLAY: You’re spending a lot of time in Florida. I’m spending a lot of time in Florida. Poll results have come out in the last couple of hours. University of North Florida. One of the polls, not particularly surprising, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis up seven points on Nikki Fried, up eight points on Charlie Crist. Democrats still have to pick their nominee on the Democrat side.

BUCK: And when they do, by the way, you’re gonna see that DeSantis number go up a couple points just when we know who the Democrat nominee is.

CLAY: I think it will be Charlie Crist. He seems to be kind of running away with it in many ways.

BUCK: He’s been running for office in Florida for the last hundred years, from what I can understand.

CLAY: Here is a good example of this, Buck. Two different polls in Florida today — and I’m looking at Real Clear Politics, I love looking at polls, I’m a nerd, they post these new every day. In St. Petersburg, they did a poll, St. Pete Polls, Charlie Crist up 32 points over Nikki Fried in the Democrat primary.

BUCK: I believe that. Sure.

CLAY: Okay. In the University of North Florida poll, Nikki Fried up four points, they came out the same day, a 36-point poll difference and a difference in who would win. So that is kind of hard to explain, and it brings me to this. We’ve been talking a lot about the Senate.

BUCK: Can I ask, which one do you think is right? I’ve never looked at a poll before between the two of them. The assumption has been that Fried is the agricultural commissioner and she’s —

CLAY: That’s right.

BUCK: — make a lot of noise. I think people realize she’s a little off.

CLAY: Yes.

BUCK: And then there’s, you know, old man Crist who’s just been around forever.

CLAY: Yeah. I think Crist is probably gonna be the nominee.

BUCK: Yeah.

CLAY: But the fact that we got 36-point difference ties me in here. They’ve got Rubio down to Val Demings in the Senate race. Now, I do not believe this is accurate, but you’re probably gonna see this start to ricochet around because Democrats want to sell the ideas that they have tremendous momentum, right? They’re trying to sell this idea, Joementum, Joe Biden passed the House and the Senate bill. They trying to sell this idea that he’s on the comeback trail. And so I guarantee you that this poll is going to get a lot of attention. Val Demings, they have her up four points over Rubio, University of North Florida poll. Now, the reason why I want to share with you — I don’t want to run from it.

BUCK: Gonna be tough, folks. Gonna be tough. Dr. Oz, did you see the Dr. Oz commercial where he goes in, the campaign thing where he goes in to talk about the price of things and he’s asking about what he needs to buy for his crudite? I mean, it’s like he should go in there and ask if they have any Grey Poupon. This was not good, right? I mean, the team here, you guys saw it, right? Dr. Oz, I know — you talked to him last week when I was out.

CLAY: Yeah, we had him on. He was great on the show.

BUCK: Yeah. Look. He’s super compelling. He’s been crazy successful in media. But as his campaign is going here, Clay, some people are starting to say he’s down almost double digits to Fetterman, and Fetterman —

CLAY: Fetterman can’t talk.

BUCK: — looks like he doesn’t — you know, looks shaky. And he’s not an old guy. He just looks crazy, he had a serious health event recently.

CLAY: Yeah, he had a stroke. And Fetterman cannot speak. And Dr. Oz has challenged him to five different debates. I don’t think that Fetterman’s gonna be able to debate. And I think it’s gonna be even more aggressive in Pennsylvania trying to hide him than they did with Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, except Fetterman is even in worse state than Biden was. So Pennsylvania’s gonna be a mess.

We’ve got a big battle going on in Wisconsin. Georgia, certainly we know about. And Nevada, hopefully New Hampshire can end up being competitive. They’re picking a nominee here soon. And then Arizona. But if you have been out there and you’ve been of the belief, hey, there’s a huge Red Wave coming, we don’t really need to worry about it too much, I don’t need to get active, I don’t need to speak out, in the Senate in particular, that is not necessarily going to be the case. You need to be as aggressive as you can.

BUCK: We’re speaking to, with this show, millions of voters across the country. We’re speaking to conservative and Republican activists, people that are doing a lot of grassroots organizing, people that are fired up to try to create a groundswell of support for the right candidates whether it’s for the school board all the way up to Senate seat in this election. This is not the time to coast. This is when, you know, you’re kicking hard at the end of the race. This is when it’s time to absolutely hit the afterburner, because it’s looking pretty good for JD Vance in Ohio, but it’s not a sure thing. It’s very tight. I think he’s gonna be all right, but Laxalt, I think he’s gonna win in Nevada, but that one’s gonna be close. Blake Masters, strong candidate, steep hill to climb against Mark Kelly, the combatant. And then you get into Herschel v. Warnock in Georgia and —

CLAY: Warnock.

BUCK: — Dr. Oz versus Fetterman in Pennsylvania. Those are tough ones, man. Those are tough right now.

CLAY: Reverend Warnock has been a — has been a poor candidate who managed to win once. And we’ll see what ends up happening in that next one. And so this is going to be a real challenge to see exactly what’s going to happen there. I don’t think you can overrate how competitive a bunch of these are gonna be. And look. This Rubio versus Val Demings race down in Florida is gonna get trumpeted; so I just want you to hear from us as these polls are coming out, we’re gonna try to keep you apprised of everything.

BUCK: And that’s why I think it’s so important to stay focused on this. And look. I know it’s a Republican seat, but not really, up in Alaska. That’s the problem. You know, you win some, you lose some with Murkowski on the Republican Party side, which is why I think Tshibaka would really would be almost like a Republican pickup if she can win that seat, because you can count so much more on her for judicial nominees.

You and I were talking about this. The House goes to Republicans, likely. Everyone thinks so. Off-year election. Okay, great. That slows down the Biden agenda for sure. And that’s a good thing. But it doesn’t stop it. And if you have a Supreme Court vacancy or even just federal circuit court that will be up, they will stack these circuit courts with the most activist left-wing lunatics they possibly can. And they’ll put in more of these nominees to head the federal agencies, to use those, the fourth branch of government, the federal agencies to push Biden agenda items. So the Senate is — it’s obviously — to say it’s important is an understatement, and it’s obvious. But it’s not looking like it did a couple months ago where — you know, we were talking about the Red Wave, the annihilation, Clay, in May and June.

CLAY: Yeah.

BUCK: Democrats, we knew they had a bag of tricks, and they’re reaching deep into it.

CLAY: Well, and look. The other thing is if they control the Senate — I hate to say it, but you never know — Clarence Thomas, 74 years old, Buck. You’ve got John Roberts. I mean, he’s coming up on 68. Alito is 72 going on 73. There are a lot of people out there, when you get into your seventies — we know this happens — unfortunately people can have unexpected health related issues. And this is a real issue in terms of being able to be a check on the Biden administration and their agenda. And it’s not going to be a cakewalk. People need to be super active and aware of how much of a battle this is gonna be in many parts of the country.