What It Means: Putin Recognizes Breakaway Ukrainian Regions

BUCK: We do have this breaking news about the situation in Ukraine right now. Putin has declared eastern Ukrainian breakaway provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk to be — this is known, often referred to as the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. The declaration here is that they are independent, and the assumption that goes along with this would be and now effectively part of Russia.

So, in much the same way as there was a referendum in Crimea to make it a part of the Russian Federation and then there was this military incursion by Russia into this part of Ukraine back in 2014, they created a beachhead there for what is now the official declaration of this independence of the eastern Ukrainian breakaway states. Look, even the language you use here you’ll see it all goes to the Russian maskirovka, the war through deception component of this. They want us…

We talked about this as “breakaway regions.” This is Russia seizing parts of Ukrainian territory, effectively. That’s what’s going on. According to Russian TV, Putin has declared eastern Ukraine independent, and he has also told his plan to EU leaders. We don’t have more details on that yet. We will. But, Clay, here’s what I think is happening right now. So, we told the headlines, and now the next steps are, let’s say they just leave it as…

We’ll call it the Donbas, eastern Ukraine, if they just have this now as part of Russia. The Russian military situation around Ukrainian borders is such that they could still deal some kind of a knockout blow to the Ukrainian military if they choose to do so. So, this may essentially be a provocation to get some kind of response from the Ukrainian government, because let’s say Ukrainian military goes into Donbas and says this doesn’t fly.

Then the Russians go in and say, “You’re attacking Russian speakers, you are violating their sovereignty,” and it just becomes this big mess of lies. That’s one possibility. The other possibility is the Russians don’t even wait for that kind of a movement from the Ukrainian government, create a false flag inside of Ukraine — and we’re talking about the Russians, by the way. They do do false flags. That’s not conspiracy stuff. They’ve done false flags in Chechnya. They do false flags. But, Clay, I think that’s another possibility where they’ll act like they are just waiting and they just want these regions — and then if there’s some kind of a conflagration they say, “Oops! They forced our hand.”

CLAY: And the question that will be out there is, how long does this…? If Ukraine is going to accede in some way to the loss of this territory — and they have been fighting there since, like, 2014, right? So, this has been a tumultuous region, to say the least already. To what extent does this end this story? How long does this “will he or won’t he” element of the Ukrainian invasion continue in the wake of this if, again, Putin is going to declare eastern Ukraine independent, theoretically then all of eastern Ukraine becomes a part of Russia. If that occurs, are we talking about this border region continuing to be on tenterhooks for years to come, or does this dial back the tension here and lead to a resolution for both sides in some form or fashion?

BUCK: Think about what we would see. Let’s assume that it stops more or less here and that the Donetsk or something roughly analogous to the Donetsk — which is really an eastern region of Ukraine, obviously, all along the Russian border. Clay, they could just say — Putin could say — this is it; let’s leave it here. And what he would have is, essentially, in the eyes of not just Putin, the Kremlin, and the people who support him from within the military complex there but from his supporters inside of Russia, he will have stared down NATO and taken a chunk of lost territory without really anything. There’s been some shelling in minor —

CLAY: No significant loss of life or materiel.

BUCK: He will just have said, “I am Putin, hear me or else” and taken off a big chunk of Ukraine without having to actually even go to war. I think where we are right now is. Is that actually sufficient?

CLAY: Well, I think for a lot of people out there, how would the Biden administration respond to this? They probably would let Russia, in theory, take this small region of eastern Ukraine and then hope that this thing just goes away?

BUCK: Yeah.

CLAY: I mean, right?

BUCK: Of course.

CLAY: I mean, because the last thing they want is this to linger.

BUCK: Maybe they’ll put some sanctions on it and things like that. It does remind me, for those who remember the great Tom Clancy, in Debt of Honor, if I recall, the whole point is that an imperial Japanese — resurgent, right-wing Japanese military — strike to take back lost territory from World War II, and their whole thing is they’re gonna take it so fast, Clay, that why fight over it once it’s been taken? It reminds me a little bit what’s going on here. It’s already done, guys. Why fight over this with us? That’s the idea of —

CLAY: Well, and then the other thing you have to worry about is the precedent that’s being set on Taiwan because China certainly is watching this closely to see how we respond in this situation.

BUCK: 100%

BREAK TRANSCRIPT

BUCK: Putin is speaking right now on Ukraine. They’re calling it “tensions” on Fox News. Here is the situation just to bring everybody up to speed as we are seeing this the real time too. Putin is talking right now about the area of eastern Ukraine that has been the site of Russian incursion, invasion, and the creation of two separatist, non-recognized separatist republics of Luhansk and Donetsk, the area in the eastern part of Ukraine, the far eastern part of Ukraine known as the Donbas.

And right now, we’re hearing from Vladimir Putin as it seems he is declaring independence of these regions. Now, this is a much lesser right now escalation than what was perhaps thought would be happening if we had the opening of hostilities given the size of the Russian military force arrayed along Ukraine’s borders. That doesn’t mean that this won’t escalate very rapidly, though. What will the Ukrainian government do in response?

Clay, there is a very real chance as we see this unfolding that Putin essentially created a situation where this will look like… Remember, there was all this talk about, by putting all of the soldiers, putting all the military assets in place, maybe it was a head fake to get concessions. Well, maybe he put them all in place because the head fake in a sense is a massive invasion when the actual desire is to just take this eastern portion and it will seem to everybody like, “Well, at least this didn’t turn into open conflict and warfare the way that we thought.” So this may defang — again, we don’t know yet.

We don’t know who their future plans are. But as it stands right now, this could be a move by Putin to outmaneuver and outplay the European and American response because if it’s not open war, if it’s just a declaration of this official recognition — and the Ukrainian government extent move against them and the Russians don’t escalate — then this becomes a de facto reality on the ground. They’ve been giving out Russian passports in this region for weeks already. So they’re creating a reality on the ground of, “These are Russian speakers and Russian citizens, and we leave it there.” That’s what could be happening.

CLAY: And, to be fair, a lot of these people might well prefer to be Russian, right, in the border region. I mean, something like 85% consider themselves to be of Russian ethnic origin as opposed to Ukrainian. And so if he has been selling the idea, “I’m gonna take over the whole country” and provoking all of this fear that this was gonna spiral into something far larger, and then ultimately this is the price to pay…

I mean, really the question is, how is Ukraine gonna respond now, right? Do they have any recourse here? Because I can’t imagine that they are very appreciative on having part of their territory just taken away. And the question is, is this going to be enough, or is this a prelude to something more significant going forward? But again, as we are watching, we’ll eventually have official translation of this.

But Putin has been declaring independence for parts of Ukraine. We need to check and see. The other thing I was gonna check, Buck, is what is the reaction of the stock market in general? Because initially on reports of this potentially occurring. Obviously, the stock market is closed today for Presidents’ Day, I believe. But the futures on the stock market had declined pretty precipitously in the last hour or so as people became aware of what might be taking place.

BUCK: So there is something of a playbook for this. The Russians have run this before. At the very end of the Bush administration — so we’re going back to now I think, what was it, August 2008 — you had this escalation in a region of Georgia, the country of Georgia where you had breakaway republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and the Russians did this. It was very similar. There was some shelling and some “we need to step in here to protect the Russian speakers in the region,” and you had these little breakaway republics.

And keep in mind that the Russians effectively got their way and got away with it. This is what actually happened. This was, from their perspective, a success. So it is not really surprising that there is a similar campaign going on here — or similar play, it seems, being made — as Putin is officially declaring now, as he said, as fox is translating this, the Western news outlets are translating this in real time, Putin has declared that Ukraine has always been a part of Russia, that these eastern regions are now independent, Luhansk and Donetsk.

Fascinating, Clay. There has been some reporting on in the past on who were some of the top officials of these non-recognized — now recognized by Vladimir Putin, of course — breakaway republics. There was actually a dogcatcher and a former mall Santa that were running the government in essence or at the very top end government of these breakaway Republicans. The point then being the Russians are running them, they just found local people to pretend to be the Russian puppets, if you will, and try to get all this set up for what we’re seeing right now.

CLAY: Do you believe this lessens or increases tension going forward based on this news happening literally as we are talking at this moment? Is it your indication of — ’cause I’m looking at the stock market. The stock market is down around 2%, the NASDAQ is, the Dow is down a little bit over a percent. Obviously, that’s not… Those aren’t monster moves, but it suggests discomfort with what’s going on.

BUCK: So you can look at what did we do in response to Crimea, what did we do in response to Abkhazia and South Ossetia, what did we do in response to the initial incursion in eastern Ukraine? Some sanctions, but did we do…? Was there…? When I say “we,” by the way, I don’t just mean America. I mean NATO, Europe, the West. Not a whole lot, Clay. If it stops here, if it stops here, yeah, there will be sanctions.

There will be diplomatic wrangling. But Putin gets this part of Ukraine back for the Russian Federation without actually having to fight, which is a huge win for him. So what are the responses going to be here? Diplomatic and sanctions, that’s it. Obviously, no one’s suggesting right now in this country, NATO is gonna go in and do anything about these breakaway republics. If they leave it here, Putin might walk away with a win.