What Would Biden Do If China Invaded Taiwan?

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CLAY: A story that I think has the potential to be the biggest in the world in a really negative way — and I don’t know that it’s getting a lot of attention right now, Buck. But over the past four days, 150 different Chinese aircraft have flown over Taiwan, including 56 aircraft on Monday, the largest incursion of Taiwanese airspace ever by China.

I know a lot of you out there may not be paying a lot of attention or be aware of what this situation could be. But I think, Buck, this is a direct result of American incompetence in Afghanistan and a belief among foreign leaders that Joe Biden is not a strong enough leader or in control enough of his mental faculties to be able to handle a massive confrontation that could occur if China decides to invade Taiwan.

Look, China basically took over Hong Kong, and nobody did anything. The U.S. is retrenching from the rest of the world. We have as our policy in Taiwan strategic ambiguity, which means we’ve never really said what we would do if China tried to reclaim Taiwan as a part of the larger Chinese government, which is what they’ve always argued, that Taiwan is a part of China.

Do you think, Buck, that Joe Biden is up to this situation, this geopolitical game of chess with Chairman Xi in China? And how far do these provocations go? Again, we’ve never seen this happen before: 56 aircraft, the largest incursion of Taiwanese airspace ever taking place right now by China on this Monday. It’s like they’re testing us to see what they can get away with.

BUCK: China doesn’t care what the pundits are CNN and MSNBC say about how brilliant Tony Blinken or the Biden national security team is. They know what it was like, for one thing, under the eight years of the Obama administration. I do think it’s important to remind everybody that the Obama foreign policy was one of essentially unmitigated disaster.

It was the bowing-and-apology tour to start off with, all over the Muslim world in particular, right? Obama showing up. “We’re so sorry. America’s done all these bad things.” Didn’t buy us any goodwill. Didn’t change the trajectory of things, in a positive way. And then you had the Syrian civil war, a conflagration that took over a half a million lives. You had the debacle in Libya, most notably or best remembered by what happened in Benghazi.

You had the rise of ISIS in Syria and the blitzkrieg into Iraq that really, in many ways ,was a preview of what we were going to see from the Taliban under the Biden administration. And Clay, China sees all this and sees. The Chinese economy’s not doing well right now. There’s a lot of theories as to why. Remember, it’s very hard to accurately analyze the Chinese economy because they lie.

The central metrics for the Chinese economy are constantly manipulated by the state authorities there. So you have a lot of people who will even say their GDP numbers are greatly inflated and to call it “funny accounting” is probably far too generous. But do the Chinese see an administration right now, Biden administration that’s embattled?

They see that there’s not any real sense of American politicize unity at this point in time and so of course they’re going to trying to test the waters a little bit. They’re going to do things to see, how much can they get away with. And you start to wonder, “What would the Biden administration response be to a major national security crisis?”

CLAY: What do you think would happen here in Taiwan actually got invaded? Would we just allow it to happen?

BUCK: It’s a fascinating question and it’s one that I don’t think there’s an easy answer to. We are bound by a treaty to defend Taiwan. Would we do it if push came to shove?

CLAY: It would be World War III.

BUCK: Depending on how it goes. I don’t think this is imminent, but there’s another way that you can see Chinese influence in Taiwan playing out. The Chinese have run the playbook already in Hong Kong and it’s somewhat similar to what Putin and the Russians do on their periphery, which is they start to undermine the society from within as well. And they’re certainly trying to do that in Taiwan.

CLAY: They’re doing it in America, too.

BUCK: That’s right. They’re playing… I know. Clay, it’s amazing to me how much I talk to people; they still say, “What do you think about Russian influence operations in America?” I look at them, and I say, “We have NBA players here who never have to work a day in their lives again if they don’t want to — who are globally famous- – who bend the knee and beg forgiveness from China, from Xi Jinpingthe moment one of them says the wrong thing!”

CLAY: Yes.

BUCK: “And you’re worried about Russian influence operations in America because of the Facebook ad buy or whatever in 2016?” It’s totally delusional. China is a far more pensions threat to under mining the U.S. from within, and the Biden administration… If you’re looking at this and you’re an advisory to the United States…

And I’ve talked to a lot of veterans about this in recent weeks who are just furious with the ineptitude. Remember, it’s not just Biden. It’s the team around him. If the people around Joe Biden were really squared away, we might feel a little bit better about this, right? He’s still the commander-in-chief, but, Clay, Tony Blinken? Chairman Milley? Jen Psaki?

CLAY: This is why they’re sending the planes over Taiwan right now. This is a direct, I think, Buck, result of our failure in Afghanistan. Because what the Democrats —

BUCK: We didn’t send them. They didn’t break Taiwanese sovereign air. That actually be an act of war but they buzz close by as a little extended middle finger toward Taiwan.

CLAY: So this, I believe, is a direct… Some people say, “Well, we needed to get out of Afghanistan. What does it matter? Yes, it was a messy exit. But what’s the long-term geopolitical significance? In the long run, we’re not there, we didn’t belong there, and people will forget, and it’s not gonna be that big of a story.” Well, the impact geopolitically is, we are so weakened that I think China…

I guarantee you they’re debating right now. Do you think Joe Biden — who just said it’s time to end foreign wars — would actually step up and defend Taiwan if China decided they wanted to invade it and make Taiwan a part of the mainland Chinese empire? I don’t know that he would.

BUCK: I think the Biden administration would call for some kind of a U.N. mandate, protectorate situation.

CLAY: A sternly worded letter.

BUCK: They would hold a lot of meetings. Taiwan would be able to put up at least able to say of a fight in the short term and so it’s not clear exactly what the Chinese war plan would be and how they’d go about this. But even just this. There’s a psychological warfare component of this too. The people of Taiwan are sitting there and they’re asking the same question we are right now: Would America really…? Look, I think a lot of Americans would ask this question. Would we want to go to war over Taiwan? Do you want a send your kids to fight?

CLAY: There would be a ton of people asking that question.

BUCK: A lot of people ask that question. I think it’s… By the way, it’s a valid question to ask, a valid question to ask. So the Biden administration? I don’t think anybody knows exactly how they would respond in that moment. But if we’re just looking at pure ability, the ineptitude of the withdrawal. It’s not just the logistics part of it for everybody. It’s the lack of foresight, the abandoning of Bagram, the clear inability to have preparations in place because, as you say, Clay — it is a great line from Mike Tyson.

CLAY: “Everybody’s got a plan ’til they get punched in the face.”

BUCK: Yes. There’s also, “No plan survives first contact with the enemy.” No battle plan. That’s not Mike Tyson, but a similar idea. And this Biden administration, if you’re looking at contingencies, an on-the-spot response for something that’s of the kind of magnitude of a real Chinese provocation against Taiwan, or even a provocation in the South China Sea where they’re building out these air bases.

And there’s all these areas of continued animosity between Chinese and a lot of other nations — the Philippines, Korea, Japan — about who has control of these territorial waters. The Biden administration, it feels like it’s asleep at the switch on everything. Why wouldn’t they be asleep at the wheel on this one too?

CLAY: I think that’s a fantastic question, and I think that’s what the Chinese are trying to exploit.